Post Cold War developments
Source: The Economics Times
The author talks about the Ethiopian civil war.
Editorial Insights:
What’s the matter?
- Ethiopia the only African nation that never has been colonized is suffering brutal divisiveness.
- The Civil war is broke out between the Ethiopian govt led by PM Abiy Ahmed & the forces of Tigray (TDF).
- During the course of the 1-year war, the TDF has joined hands with its arch-enemy the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), While the Ethiopian govt has joined hands with its old enemy Eritrea to jointly attack the Tigray region.
- A recent joint human rights report by the Ethiopian & UN Commissions for Tigray shows the abhorrent brutality by parties to the conflict.
- While the Ethiopia-Eritrea coalition is determined to diminish Tigrayan power with finality, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is resisting to survive & retaliate.
The Five facets of the War:
- The need of the hour is a ceasefire by all sides.
- But calls of the UN & other major bodies have fallen on deaf ears.
- The failure of negotiations & efforts through special representatives led to the belief that PM Abiy will be ready to negotiate with other Tigrayans except for TPLF.
- The same goes for TPLF leadership.
- This impasse leads to the quest for military domination.
The military situation has turned away from the Ethiopian govt, While the TDF & OLA believes that only military push can bring Abiy to negotiate.
However, the truth is that there is no military solution to the Ethiopian imbroglio.
Issue of Ethnic Federalism: that was invoked by the 1995 constitution.
This provided stability & peace in Ethiopia that allowed it to grow rapidly at about 10% annum for several years & become a leader in Africa.
However, all the work done till now gone disarray, when the current regime started to undo the ethnic federal principle & move towards a centralized Prosperity Party.
The undoing of ethnic principles caused concern in Tigray & that ultimately led to a civil war.
Now any discussion of ceasefire/peace needs to include the ethnic federalism debate.
The attitude of fighting to the death on both sides is causing immense harm to Ethiopia.
Both leaderships must take responsibility cease violence & allow talks to take place.
The toxic propaganda war must cease.
Till now nearly 2.7 million Ethiopian citizens displaced.
Humanitarian access needs to be secured & civil society organizations & the UN must be allowed to operate without hindrance.
Though UN Security Council held 12 meetings on the Ethiopian issue but no single resolution passed.
The US is deeply concerned & it now found time to focus on the issue & the consequences.
The US decided to keep economic sanctions on Ethiopia & create leverage for US-led mediation.
The Way-Ahead:
- The people of Ethiopia wait with bated breath for a resolution.
- The 2018 transition within the EPRDF ruling coalition by PM Abiy to lead a new generation of leaders & provide political reforms began optimistically.
- However, nothing brought relief.
- Against this backdrop, it is best to allow Africa to resolve the Ethiopia problem.
- Help to overcome stumbling blocks can be provided.
- However, its friends & allied must guarantee peace & a ceasefire.
- Then a group of diplomats, civil society, interfaith Council & former diplomats set talks to decide on the agenda.
- During this period, humanitarian corridors should be established.
- A ceasefire & a status quo on the position of forces should be maintained.
Conclusion:
Though a return to the pre-2018 TPLF-led position will not be easy since the anger against the Tigrayans has been stoked to a high level.
However, it is the need of the hour for the decent & hardworking people of Ethiopia who have been a beacon of hope in Africa have withstood travails before, again need to stand up themselves again.
